Haiyan SONG, (Hong Kong Polytechnic University)
Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19
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April 28th 2021, 1:30 pm – 2:30 pm (CET)
The profound impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on global tourism activity has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun
to seek the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism from the devastating effects of COVID-19. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined to forecast
the possible paths to tourism recovery. The autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model was used to generate baseline forecasts, and Delphi adjustments based on different
recovery scenarios were performed to reflect different levels of severity in terms of the pandemic's influence. These forecasts were also used to evaluate the economic effects of the
COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry. Hong Kong is used as an example in this study.
Keywords : tourism, hospitality, covid-19
Discussant : Florine Livat – Kedge Business School
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